The "New Era" of UK Business Travel: A 2026 Impact Report

It is still early days for the "fully enforced" era (which begins on February 25, 2026), but the data from the phased rollout and recent forecasts suggest a complex picture: traveller volume is actually growing overall, but the "spontaneous" business traveller is becoming a rarer species.¹

Here is how the numbers and trends break down:

1. The High Volume of Early Adopters

Surprisingly, the administrative hurdle hasn't caused a massive drop in total arrivals. As of late 2025, the Home Office reported that 19.6 million ETAs had already been granted.²

US Travelers: Led the way with 4.6 million approvals.³
EU Travelers: German (2.0m) and French (1.4m) nationals followed closely.⁴
Forecast: VisitBritain actually predicts 45.5 million inbound visits in 2026, a 4% increase from 2025, suggesting that the £16 fee isn't a "deal-breaker" for the average visitor.⁵

2. The "Friction" Factor (The Drop in Spontaneity)

While the total number of travellers is rising, the behaviour of business travellers has changed significantly. Industry reports from early 2026 highlight a few key "volume dampeners":

The "Last-Minute" Decline: Before the ETA, a US or EU executive could book a flight at 10 AM and land in London by dinner. Now, that is impossible without a pre-existing ETA. Analysts have noted a measurable drop in "same-day" or "next-day" business bookings as travellers wait for digital approval.⁶
The "Double British" Hurdle: A specific volume hit has been seen with dual nationals (e.g., British-Americans or British-Europeans). From February 25, 2026, those using a non-UK passport without an ETA will be denied boarding. This will cause a wave of "accidental" travel cancellations at the gate.

The ETA system has actually helped "recover" some volume that was previously lost to the more expensive visa process:

The Saudi Effect: After Saudi Arabian nationals were moved to the ETA/EVW system, visitor numbers from the region spiked, replacing what was previously a high-friction visa process with a smoother digital one.
Business Travel vs. General Tourism: While tourism is booming, corporate travel remains slightly more sensitive to the administrative "checklist." HR departments are now seeing the ETA as a "compliance risk," leading some companies to consolidate trips (one long trip instead of three short ones) to minimise border friction.

Summary of Impact on Volume

Metric	Impact	Why?
Overall Visitor Volume	Up 4% (Projected)	General post-pandemic growth and easy digital adoption.
Spontaneous Business Travel	Down	The mandatory 3-day lead time kills "emergency" meetings.
Dual-National Travel	Disrupted	Strict enforcement of British passport use for UK citizens.
Long-haul (US/GCC) Travel	Up	The ETA is seen as "easier" than previous visa requirements for these groups.

A Note on the "Contactless Border": The government’s goal is that by late 2026, the volume of travelers will actually increase because the ETA will allow more people to use eGates, reducing the hour-long queues that previously discouraged business visitors.

Are you planning a business trip for yourself or a team? Obtain a business visa assessment here, and we will also help you obtain your visa.